Bright Dairy (600597) Quarterly Review: Liquid Milk Business Stabilizes

Bright Dairy (600597) Quarterly Review: Liquid Milk Business Stabilizes

Bright Dairy’s 19Q1 revenue was 54.

5.2 billion (+5.

51%), net profit 1.

4.1 billion (+4.

03%) Bright Dairy publishes 2019 first quarter report.

The company achieved operating income of 54 in 19Q1.

52 ppm, a five-year increase of 5.


Realize net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies.

41 ppm, a ten-year increase4.


Realize net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies.

71 ppm, an increase of 24 in ten years.


The company’s performance basically meets the expectations of our Air Force.

What do we expect Bright Dairy 2019?
In 2021, the EPS will be 0.

37 yuan, 0.

39 yuan and 0.

40 yuan, maintaining the “overweight” level.

Revenue from liquid milk stabilized, with revenue of 30 in 19Q1.

56 trillion, +3 for ten years.

22% Bright Dairy 19Q1 liquid milk realized income of 30.

56 ppm, a 10-year increase3.

twenty two%.

The company’s operating income temporarily decreased in 20184.

71%, the liquid milk alternates ten years from the product perspective.

66% is the primary cause of the company’s revenue decline.

We believe that the decompression pressure of the company’s liquid milk eased in 19Q1, and the stabilization of Moslian’s sales is an important reason.

In addition, other dairy products achieved income 17 in 19Q1.

16 ppm, an increase of 19 in ten years.


Livestock products achieved income in 19Q15.

00 ppm, a decrease of 19 per year.


The core Shanghai market has obvious advantages, with 19Q1 revenue13.

80 trillion, ten years +8.

86% of Shanghai, as the core market of Bright Dairy, achieved revenue in 19Q113.
80 ppm, a ten-year increase of 8.
86%, highlighting the advantages of Bright Dairy in the Shanghai market.

At the same time, the company’s sales of low-temperature products in the Shanghai region accounted for a relatively high, Shanghai’s revenue growth was mainly driven by the growth of low-temperature products.

In addition, the foreign market realized revenue of 28 in 19Q1.

66 ppm, a ten-year increase2.


The overseas market realized revenue in 19Q111.

70 ppm, a ten-year increase of 7.


The increase in expense and expenditure efficiency is an important reason why the net profit grew faster than the income after deduction. Due to rising cost pressures, Guangming Dairy’s gross profit margin was 32 in 19Q1.

24%, down 2 each year.

06 points.

However, the efficiency of expenses and expenditures has improved, 都市夜网 and sales expenses in 19Q1 were 20%.

92%, a decline of 3 per year.

15 marks.

Management + R & D expenses 3.

53%, increasing by 0 every year.

5 points.

We believe that under the background of the company’s main product liquid milk income stabilizing and rebounding, the company’s expense delivery efficiency has room for improvement.

We are optimistic about the profit elasticity brought by the stabilization of liquid milk revenue, and maintain the “overweight” rating. The replacement of liquid milk represented by Moslian has affected the company’s revenue and profit growth in the past 2 years.The stabilization and recovery is expected to bring breakthrough elasticity to the company’s profits.

What do we expect Bright Dairy 2019?
Revenues will reach 215 in 2021.

43 trillion, 221.

18 ppm and 227.

80 ppm, with an increase of 2 each year.

7%, 2.

7% and 3.


EPS reached 0 respectively.

37 yuan, 0.

39 yuan and 0.

40 yuan.

Comparable companies estimate an average of 27 times PE in 2019. Considering that the stabilization and rebound of liquid milk in 19Q1 Bright Dairy will have a positive impact on market expectations, giving Bright Dairy 10%?
15% evaluation premium, corresponding to 29.


1x PE estimate, target price range is 10.


51 yuan, maintain “overweight” rating.
Risk warning: liquid milk income is not up to expectations; competition is fiercer than expected; food safety.